Travzonen.se
TrottForum
TrottManager
  Travforum -> TravSpelet -> Allmänt -> How do race engine work?
 

Diskutera allt som rör Travspelet. Ingen reklam för hästar som ligger ute till försäljning eller reklam för avelshingstar är tillåten i denna delen av forumet.
Username

Password

[ 1 ]  
Author Message
Juliet1409 Posted: 2022-11-08 17:18:19
74
Stald Peace
Axevalla

Became a member: 2021-06-20
Forum posts: 8
hello

i was wondering why my horse "hest 1" is winning over my horse "hest 2"

see below statistics, do anybody have an explanation.

Hest 1
Styrka 0
Hurtighed 4
Starthurtighed 3
Spurt 2
Galop 3
Tung Bane 7
Vinterbane 9
Form 10



Hest 2
Styrka 1
Hurtighed 5
Starthurtighed 3
Spurt 1
Galop 2
Tung Bane 6
Vinterbane 4
Form 10


"hest 2" should on the paper be better than "hest 1"

their first race:

Lopp 1
1640 Meter
Let bane

Hest 1
Sko Uten sko
Placering 7
tid: 1,11.2
Kusk dyg 6
Kusk offensiv 5

Hest 2
Sko Uten sko
Placering 3
tid: 1,10.8
Kusk dyg 8
Kusk offensiv 7

Conclusion: "Hest 2" was better. as the stat shows.



Their nr.2 race together

Lopp 2
2140M
Tung Bane

Hest 1
Sko Guld sko
Placering 1
tid: 1,13.8
Kusk dyg 3
Kusk offensiv 4
Kusk form 9

Hest 2
Sko Guld sko
Placering 5
tid: 1,14,0
Kusk dyg 5
Kusk offensiv 5
Kusk form 9


Now suddenly do "hest 1" win.
But "hest 2" i still better in hurtighed and styrka.
they are almost the same in Tung Bane
And the kusk are almost the same skills. as i see it, do "Hest 2" have a better kusk.
I dont understand how "hest 1" beats "hest 2" in this race 2, can somebody explain it to me?
Reply
backagard Posted: 2022-11-08 18:57:33

Became a member: 2015-03-29
Forum posts: 495
Well, I don´t think anybody could explain this in any logical way. This happens daily. '

My guess is that there are hidden parameters like "actual form" (the horses don´t have consistant performances or consistant progress). And there are definately other parameters like the less hidden secret of that "spurt" is preferred to be zero rather than anything else.

If I speak fot myself I also think this issue of unpredictedness or unexpectedness is one of the things that makes this game worth playing. If always the best - or most trained - horse win why even race the horses if we knew the outcome before? Embrace it and accept it.
Reply
Poffpuff Posted: 2022-11-08 22:53:35
811
Mackenhof
Dannero

Became a member: 2013-08-14
Forum posts: 1613
Don’t forget the kuskform
Reply
Juliet1409 Posted: 2022-11-09 20:36:59 Answer to: "Don’t forget the kuskform :)"
74
Stald Peace
Axevalla

Became a member: 2021-06-20
Forum posts: 8
Both horses did have kuskform at 9 in that "race 2"
Reply
Lecavalier Posted: 2022-11-10 08:13:55 Answer to: "Well, I don´t think anybody could explain this in any logical way. This ha"

Became a member: 2007-11-02
Forum posts: 438
Well said, I totally agree. And things like that happen daily in real life sport. As an example the best trained soccer or hockey time does not win every single game. Or the car with most horse powers does not win every race and so on and so on. In life in general, there are parameters and feelings that will affect the outcome of a competition which are almost impossible to control or predict So for me, it is not so strange that the less good horse won.
Reply
Juliet1409 Posted: 2022-11-10 16:44:56
74
Stald Peace
Axevalla

Became a member: 2021-06-20
Forum posts: 8
i see your reasons...

The only strange thing i see, is that the Horse 1 have 0 in "styrke".
and now the race is longer.

meaning, it should be harder for the horse to finish a 2140 meter race than a 1640.


Or am i wrong?
Reply
backagard Posted: 2022-11-10 17:30:57

Became a member: 2015-03-29
Forum posts: 495
I haven´t seen any connection between "styrka" and long distance. The conclusion is that there´s nothing logical in this game.

If you train "styrka" the horse doesn´t necessary perform better in long distances.
I don´t say that styrka is unnecessary, but you can´t make a horse better by just train "stryka" nor "snabbhet". I would say that a horse is born with some mental strength that you don´t see - I would guess that it´s in the famous zero in "spurt" - and then you train the horse to be better or faster over the years. Sometimes the horse is in shape (form) and sometimes not in shape. They don´t perform equally every time they start.
Reply
Juliet1409 Posted: 2022-11-11 15:29:07
74
Stald Peace
Axevalla

Became a member: 2021-06-20
Forum posts: 8
So you said everything is just random, it dosent matter if the horse is 4, 12 or 18 in snabbhet?
Reply
Lecavalier Posted: 2022-11-12 15:05:14

Became a member: 2007-11-02
Forum posts: 438
Such a big difference will matter, at least over a longer time span. So it is not unnecessary to train.
A 18-speeder will win significantly more than a 4-speeder is my experience. But in the absolute elite the hidden mental ability plays more of a role, I have had horses with 0 in spurt and 25-30 in speed but they keep loosing to horses with maybe 18-20 in speed and 0 in spurt. They just haven’t got the brain to be best (but can still be very good).

Regarding the styrka question, its a bit random. I have had very strong horses who had not been good at long distances and vice versa with horses who has 3-4 in styrka but perform well in long races…so it is unpredictable but a nice ”tidsfördriv”
Reply
backagard Posted: 2022-11-13 20:17:05 Answer to: "So you said everything is just random, it dosent matter if the horse is 4, "

Became a member: 2015-03-29
Forum posts: 495
You have to train your horses to perform better over time.

But as said by Lecavalier; It's not given that the horses become best over long distances just because you train a lot stamina (styrka). That's the conclusion I've made.
I've been surprised more than once of horses I've thought be worthless become winners and also otherwise (which happens more often...).
I've won the Breeders final (short distance) with a horse having Speed 5 and Stamina 7. That horse didn't reach the Kriteriefinal.

There's a lot to analyze, but the game is all about probability and performances over time. You can't win every race but you can maximize every horse's prizemoney. Cherry is still best in class of that.
Reply
Juliet1409 Posted: 2022-11-14 15:40:41 Answer to: "You have to train your horses to perform better over time. But as said "
74
Stald Peace
Axevalla

Became a member: 2021-06-20
Forum posts: 8
sounds strange to me.


And I am not sure what you mean by maximize every horse's prizemoney.
Reply
backagard Posted: 2022-11-15 06:42:35 Answer to: "sounds strange to me. And I am not sure what you mean by maximize eve"

Became a member: 2015-03-29
Forum posts: 495
You race, you win and you lose. If the horse is "in form" you can win - or earn a lot of money - in several races in short time. The other side of the coin is that the horse could lose a lot of startingpoints if they don´t perform, but there´s always a way back to be in races with higher prizemoney - especially in Travzonen Open.

For example I see users start the horses when they seem to be in form on sundays instead of in WTC or V75, Why not take a chance in races with higher prizemoney? That´s what I mean by maximize the prizemoney the horses earn.

The rest is something everyone have to analyze themselves.
Reply
[ 1 ]